Real Backtests

The two real correlation/backtest findings from this engine, computed live from signals on every rebuild -- not a hardcoded snapshot.

Vegas implied-total signal

Real backtest across team-seasons (1999-2025).

Same-season correlation

YoY direction accuracy

%

Magnitude correction factor

x

Real teams move ~% further year-over-year than the naive Vegas-implied shift predicts -- this factor is applied in vegas_yoy_delta_corrected.

Coaching turnover vs. real team performance

Real correlation, not causal proof -- teams tend to fire underperforming coordinators after a bad season, and bad seasons partly regress to the mean on their own regardless of who's coaching. See Methodologies and source-of-truth Section 28 for the full caveat.